What Leads to the Changes of Volatility Spillover Effect Between Chinese and American Soybean Futures Markets?

This paper examines the volatility spillover between the soybean futures contracts traded in the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and China Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) through a normalized Copula–GARCH(1,1) - t model with structural changes. The structural change points are identified through a combination of Bayesian diagnosis with Z-test. The study finds that the volatility spillover exists between the DCE and CBOT soybean futures and weakens through time. We further identify seven structural change points in the volatility spillover relationship, suggesting it is going through significant structural changes. The changes are related to major social-political events including the trade conflict between China and the US, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. © 2023 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Where have the enteric viruses gone? - Differential effects on frequent causes of infectious diarrhoea by SARS-CoV-2 pandemic lockdown measures.

BACKGROUND: Measures of distancing, wearing face/medical masks and lockdown introduced in many countries to meet the challenges of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have led to gross changes in the epidemiology of important infections. The observation of decline of positive norovirus tests after introduction of lockdown in Germany led us to investigate changes in the detection of major causes of diarrhoea by comparing pre-pandemic quarters (PPQ: 1Q/17 through 1Q/20) since 2017 and pandemic quarters (PQ: 2Q/20 through 1Q/21). METHODS AND SETTING: Bioscientia Laboratory Ingelheim is a large regional clinical pathology laboratory serving > 50 hospitals and > 5000 general practitioners and specialist outpatient practices located in the federal states Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Antigen detection assays were used for detection of astrovirus, adenovirus, rotavirus, and Campylobacter antigen and Clostridium difficile Toxin A/B, while norovirus was detected by qualitative RT-PCR. FINDINGS: The mean positivity-ratios of norovirus, adenovirus and astrovirus assays were 3-20 fold lower in periods PQ (2Q/20 through 1Q/21) compared to PPQ (1Q/17 through 1Q/20) (p<.01). The mean positivity-ratio was lower in PQ compared to PPQ for rotavirus (p=.31), but failed to reach statistical significance, while for campylobacter antigen (p=.91) and C. difficile Toxin A/B (p=.17) the mean positivity-ratio was even higher in PQ compared to PPQ. CONCLUSIONS: Apparently, hygienic measures used to contain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have differential effects on incidence of diarrhoea viruses as compared to bacterial gastrointestinal agents, particularly C. difficile, which may lead to re-evaluate measures implemented against this important cause of nosocomial diarrhoea.

The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID-19.

Much of the attention from COVID-19 has been on the impacts on tourism and other service sectors; but there has been a growing interest in some agricultural and food topics, such as the decline in food away from home (FAFH) expenditures. Our work considers the importance of FAFH in the overall economy, and we also consider changes in agricultural production and trade that have occurred because of COVID-19. We gather data on actual changes to these components, as well as similar shocks to non-agricultural sectors, and employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts on gross domestic product (GDP). Results indicate that changes from agriculture due to COVID-19 have had a larger effect on the overall U.S. economy than the share of agriculture in the economy at the beginning of COVID-19. But the non-agricultural shocks still outweigh the impacts from agriculture by a magnitude of 3. Breaking the results down along the components, we find that the loss in FAFH expenditures is the largest contributor to the change in GDP resulting from shocks to agricultural markets and conclude that agricultural production/trade markets have been very resilient during the pandemic. Our results also indicate that our model (computable general equilibrium) does reasonably well in estimating GDP compared to actual changes due to the inclusion of data on actual demand, supply, and fiscal responses to COVID-19.

Impact of COVID-19 on Medium-Term Export Prospects for Soybeans, Corn, Beef, Pork, and Poultry.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered life in innumerable ways in many countries across the globe. In this article I review what the virus did to patterns of US and Brazilian exports of major commodities during the first surge of the virus during April and May 2020, and also speculate on what may happen during the beginning of North American winter in late 2020. The analysis highlights how grains versus meats have been vulnerable to trade disruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic. US exports of beef and pork were particularly impacted by a wave of processing facility shutdowns in the wake of COVID-19 outbreaks among workers. Poultry exports saw declines from their highs but remain strong, even though poultry-processing facilities have also faced issues with outbreaks and shutdowns. Trends in 2020 grain and oilseed exports have not been affected by the pandemic.